It is often possible to anticipate problems like bad weather, union actions, and even problems at certain destinations or with certain aircraft.

'Luck' is when preparation meets opportunity
When problems occur, it is desirable to have a backup plan ready. The backup plan can either contain the exact solution to the problem or it can describe a process with which to solve the problem.

The backup plan can be created weeks ahead of time in the change management phase or just a few hours before it is to be used. Most backup plans created for the potential snowstorm or for possible union actions, may never be used. But when they are suddenly needed, they have a tremendous value.

Disruptions
Sometimes when a major disruption occurs there is no backup plan available. A sudden weather change or some other unpredictable event made it impossible to prepare for the situation. When major disruptions occur you want to respond quickly and find the cancellation candidates that affect passengers the least. Then you have more time to find a recovery plan that brings you back to a stable operation as quick as possible. Carmen provides dedicated solvers to help find the optimal cancellation candidates and recovery plan.

Cancelling a flight during a snowstorm is easy to explain to passengers. Cancelling a flight because of missing crew is harder to explain. Efficient recovery from all the minor disruptions pays off in improved customer relations. Dedicated solvers analyse and present the best recovery options to the user for final evaluation. If you want to swap a 737 for an MD-80 you get the exact feedback on how this affects passsenger flow, scheduled maintenance, the standby level for the two fleets etc. The feedback is provided to you within minutes.

Don't practice on the passengers
Major snowstorms, fog or union actions do not occur very often. To manage situations like these you need extensive experience in handling similar situations. The cost of obtaining this experience may be very high in terms of both lost revenue and damaged passenger relations.

Instead of using the real life situations to gain the necessary experience, it is possible to use an approach similar to the one used when training flight crew. With an event simulator connected to the operation IT-system, the trackers can practice on events like strikes, the closing down of an airport, or operating with reduced capacity and strikes in a controlled way, without disturbing real passengers or generating real costs.

Feedback
To increase robustness, the actual results from the operation is compared with the original plan. Cancelled or delayed flights, violated quality rules and postponed maintenance stops are analysed and the planning model revised. Since reality changes constantly, the planning goals have to change with it.